Thursday, February 28, 2013

Global Warming: Economists' Views

I recently came across a report of a random poll of economists done in 2005, from which it looks as though my views on global warming are not as far out as I had assumed, at least among my fellow economists. The piece can be found at:

http://ew-econ.typepad.fr/articleAEAsurvey.pdf

The relevant table:

Table 1:
Impact of Greenhouse Gases

In comparison to a world in which greenhouse gas levels were stable, rising levels of greenhouse gases by the end of the twenty-first century will cause GDP per capita in the U.S. to be:

a. more than 10 percent lower. 12.5%
b. about 5 to 10 percent lower. 7.1
c. about 1 to 5 percent lower. 21.4
d. less than 1 percent lower or higher. 35.7
e. about 1 to 5 percent higher. 16.1
f. more than 5 percent higher. 7.1

So a substantial majority think the effect will be either tiny or positive.

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